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Market Updates

The pace of inflation slowed down. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in April, coming in slightly below expectations, which was welcome news for both public and private markets. The core 12-month inflation reading, which excludes food and energy costs, came in at its lowest level since April 2021. Overall, the CPI increased by 3.4% on an annual basis, which is still above the Fed’s 2% target. It looks like the earliest an interest rate cut may come is September, and summer inflation data will give a clearer picture of how likely that is. Investors have already responded to the news by doubling down on riskier assets, such as Bitcoin and meme stocks. If rate cuts seem likely, the market could become even more bullish, as many alternative asset classes performed well in the prior low interest rate environment.

OpenAI released its new AI model, GPT-4o. The AI startup has over 100 million weekly active users, and has been valued at over $80 billion, making it one of the largest private companies in the world. Its new model is significantly faster than previous models and comes with a number of new features, including the ability to act as a real-time translator and to analyze a user’s facial expressions. Critics raised questions about its “flirty” voice and drew comparisons to the Scarlett Johansson-voiced AI in the movie “Her.” Meanwhile, co-founder and chief scientist Ilya Sutskever, who nearly succeeded in ousting CEO Sam Altman, is leaving the company, and people are wondering how his departure will affect OpenAI.

This week’s art auctions mostly met tempered expectations. Though a number of prominent lots went below their low estimates or failed to sell, the major auctions saw results in line with their pre-sale estimates. Sotheby’s marquee evening sale achieved $235 million in sales, led by a record-breaking $28.5 million sale of a Leonora Carrington painting. The work had last been sold in 1995 for $475,000, and this week’s buyer had lost out at that auction, only to finally acquire the painting nearly 30 years later. While Christie’s is still battling through a cyberattack that shut down its website, its Thursday evening sale achieved $413 million in sales, in the midpoint of its range of expectations. A David Hockney painting owned by famed TV producer Norman Lear sold for $28.6 million, a hefty return after originally being bought for $64,000 in 1978. All told, there were several data points among the ~$1 billion of sales to support either a bearish or bullish outlook on the market, meaning the truth likely lies somewhere in between.

Two brothers have been accused of stealing $25 million of Ethereum. Anton and James Peraire-Bueno, who both studied at MIT, have been charged with wire fraud and money laundering and are facing over 20 years in prison for their role in the alleged 2023 theft of the cryptocurrency. The brothers were able to gain the funds by exploiting a flaw in Ethereum's process for validating transactions. These arrests are a particularly important development because by their own account, this is the first time the government is charging anyone with this type of crime. It is just another step in making potential crypto investors feel more secure about what has often been a lawless environment.

📝 Top Stories

• Million-dollar jerseys: Heritage Auctions’ Spring Sports Catalog Auction is taking place this weekend, with three game-worn baseball jerseys as the centerpiece items - a signed 1968 Mickey Mantle ($3 million estimate), a 1920 Walter Johnson ($3 million estimate), and a 1955 Sandy Koufax ($2.5 million estimate), a testament to the enduring demand for rare, vintage items.

• Real Estate meets Private Credit: Major investment firms, such as Goldman Sachs and PGIM, are stepping into the lending game as traditional banks step away due to the struggling commercial real estate market. This can only be seen as a bullish sign as these firms are confident enough that the market will rebound that they are expanding their real estate debt operations.

• Mainvest closing its doors: The crowdfunding platform focused on investing into small businesses will be shutting down in mid-June, though companies who raised through the platform are still obligated to repay their investors.

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